2012年7级以上地震分布的时空统计，USGS数据为准
大家都知道全球每年发生的7级以上地震是10-15次左右，换句话说就是基本上每月发生一次。我们还可以就此类推，这十几次地震还要在南半球和北半球之间对分，也就是说基本上每两个月，地球的一个半球上才会发生一次7级以上地震。下面就这个规律来分析一下2012年的7级以上地震的情况：2012年一月10日，发生了一次7.2级地震，地点是北纬2度的北半球；
2012年二月2日，发生了一次7.1级地震，地点是南纬16度的南半球。
2个月来的7级以上地震表明这个规律在起作用，那么·我们推测一下，3月份的7级以上地震还会发生一次，这次这个7级地震可能是在北半球。
今年已有的2次7级以上地震发生时刻都在当月的上旬，那么3月份的7级以上地震会不会也是发生在上旬呢？ 全球每年发生的7级以上地震是10-15次左右，换句话说就是基本上每月发生一次。我们还可以就此类推，这十几次地震还要在南半球和北半球之间对分，也就是说基本上每两个月，地球的一个半球上才会发生一次7级以上地震。
本文来自: 地震论坛 详细文章参考：http://www.dizhenluntan.com/thread-51317-1-1.htmlpbs 发表于 2012-3-5 11:00 http://www.dizhenluntan.com/images/common/back.gif
有这个规律吗？
用2011年全年情况检验一下（来自USGS）：
FILE CREATED:Mon Mar5 06:20:34 2012
Global Search Earthquakes= 20
Catalog Used: PDE
Date Range: 2011/01/01 to 2011/12/31
Magnitude Range: 7.0- 9.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEARMO DAORIG TIME LAT LONGDEPMAGNITUDEIEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF
PDE-W201101 01 095658.12 -26.80-63.14 5767.0 MwWCMT5FM .......
PDE-W201101 02 202017.78 -38.35-73.33247.2 MwWCMT7FM .......
PDE-W201101 13 161641.54 -20.63168.47 97.0 MwWCMT2FM .......
PDE-W201101 18 202323.4828.78 63.95687.2 MwWCMT5CM .......
PDE-W201103 09 024520.3338.44142.84327.3 MwWCMT5FM .......
PDE-W201103 11 054624.1238.30142.37299.0 MwWCMTXCM STS...M
PDE-W201103 11 061540.2836.28141.11427.9 MwUCMT8FM .......
PDE-W201103 11 062550.3038.06144.59187.7 MwUCMT5FM .......
PDE-W201104 07 143243.2938.28141.59427.1 MwWCMT7CM .......
PDE-W201106 24 030939.4752.05 -171.84527.3 MwWCMT6FM .T.....
PDE-W201107 06 190318.26 -29.54 -176.34177.6 MwWCMT2FM .......
PDE-W201107 10 005710.8038.03143.26237.0 MwWCMT6FM .......
PDE-W201108 20 165502.81 -18.36168.14327.2 MwWCMT5FM .......
PDE-W201108 20 181923.55 -18.31168.22287.1 MwWCMT5FM .......
PDE-W201108 24 174611.65-7.64-74.53 1477.0 MwWCMT6FM .......
PDE-W201109 03 225540.92 -20.67169.72 1857.0 MwWCMT3FM .......
PDE-W201109 15 193104.08 -21.61 -179.53 6447.3 MwWCMT2FM .......
PDE-W201110 21 175716.10 -28.99 -176.24337.4 MwWCMT3FM .......
PDE-W201110 23 104122.9338.72 43.51167.1 MwWCMT8CM F.....L
PDE-Q201112 14 050459.27-7.56146.80 1407.1 MwWCMT6FM ....... 回复 3# 良机
2011年是个不寻常年份。
3月11日日本9级地震前的那次7级地震居然是前震。 回复 3# 良机
扣除那个7级前震和四次7级余震，差不多就是一年15次7级以上地震了。 如果说2011年是个不平常年份，那么2012年更是几千年一遇的不平常年份，如果用7级以上的地震来统计，那么得用几倍来进行统计了。对于2012年来说，2011年应该是属于太平之年。 2012年应该是平凡的一年。 3月份的这次7级以上地震终于来了：
墨西哥7.4级地震
MAG UTC DATE-TIMEy/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LONdeg DEPTH km Region
MAP 7.4 2012/03/20 18:02:49 16.662 -98.188 20.0 OAXACA, MEXICO
这次地震如同预测，发生在北半球。
继续预测，下次7级以上地震将在南半球发生，时间可能在4月。 回复 1# pbs
大家都知道全球每年发生的7级以上地震是10-15次左右，换句话说就是基本上每月发生一次。我们还可以就此类推，这十几次地震还要在南半球和北半球之间对分，也就是说基本上每两个月，地球的一个半球上才会发生一次7级以上地震。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
前半句的推论是正确的，后半句的类推有问题。无论是全球地震带的分布还是地震活动的频度，都不具有南北对称的特征。 春分是大震易发的时间 智利7.1级地震，地震位点是南纬35度。
MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km Region
7.1 2012/03/25 22:37:07 -35.183 -71.792 34.8 MAULE, CHILE
如同我以前的预测，这次7级以上地震是在南半球，时间本来是预测为4月份，由于地球每年平均12-15次7级地震，所以有时某个月有2次7级以上的地震也是可以出现的。
下次7级以上地震可能出现在北半球，时间还是4月份。
所以请大家做好准备。 这是USGS数据库中1973年至今所有的7级以上地震目录，共544个（纬度为负数者代表南半球），楼主可以参考。
还是要提醒楼主，足够多的样本数量是概率统计的前提，只观察一年中的地震事件就作出的结论是没有说服力的。即便是1973年至今的这500多个7级以上地震，样本数也是很不够的。
Link to USGS Home Page <http://www.usgs.gov>
NEIC: Earthquake Search Results
U.S.G E O L O G I C A LS U R V E Y
E A R T H Q U A K ED A T AB A S E
FILE CREATED:Thu Mar 22 17:51:02 2012
Global Search Earthquakes= 544
Catalog Used: PDE
Magnitude Range: 7.0-10.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data
CAT YEARMO DAORIG TIME LAT LONGDEPMAGNITUDEIEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF
PDE 197301 30 210112.5018.48 -103.00437.5 MsGS .C. .T.....
PDE 197302 06 103710.1031.40100.58337.7 UKPAS .C. .......
PDE 197302 28 063749.5050.49156.58277.2 MsGS 2F. .T.....
PDE 197303 17 083051.8013.37122.79337.5 UKUPP 6C. F......
PDE 197306 17 035502.9043.23145.79487.7 MsGS 8C. .T.....
PDE 197306 24 024325.5043.32146.44507.1 MsGS 8C. .T.....
PDE 197307 23 012257.8049.99 78.85 07.1 UKUPP ... ....E..
PDE 197308 28 095040 18.27-96.60847.2 UKPAS .C. .......
PDE 197309 29 004400.8041.89130.87 5757.0 UKPAS 5F. .......
PDE 197310 06 150737.30 -60.82-21.55337.5 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 197310 27 065957.4070.78 54.18 07.6 UKPAS ... ....E..
PDE 197312 28 134145.80 -14.46166.60267.8 UKBRK 7D. .......
PDE 197312 29 001931.10 -15.12166.90477.2 MsGS 7D. .......
PDE 197401 10 085113.30 -14.43166.86347.2 MsGS 6F. .......
PDE 197401 31 233005.30-7.46155.89347.0 MsGS 6F. .T.....
PDE 197402 01 031233.10-7.38155.57407.1 MsGS 6F. .T.....
PDE 197407 02 232626.60 -29.08 -175.95337.3 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 197407 13 011822.80 7.75-77.69127.3 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197407 30 051240.6036.35 70.76 2117.4 UKPAS .F. .......
PDE 197408 11 011355.5039.46 73.83 97.3 MsGS 5F. .......
PDE 197408 18 104412.80 -38.45-73.43367.1 MsGS 6D. .......
PDE 197410 03 142129.10 -12.27-77.79137.6 MsGS 7C. .T.....
PDE 197410 08 095058.1017.30-62.00477.5 MsGS 8D. .......
PDE 197410 16 054509.8052.64-32.07337.3 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 197410 23 061454 -8.42154.03487.2 MsGS ... .......
PDE 197411 09 125949.80 -12.50-77.79 67.2 MsGS 4F. .......
PDE 197411 20 041446.90 -15.02167.14337.0 UKPAS 7D. .......
PDE 197502 02 084339.1053.11173.50107.6 MsGS 9C. .......
PDE 197502 04 113607.5040.64122.58337.0 Mw01020 .C. .......
PDE 197505 10 142738.70 -38.18-73.23 67.8 UKPAS .D. .......
PDE 197505 26 091151.5036.00-17.65338.1 UKPAS 6D. .T.....
PDE 197506 10 134714.5043.02147.73157.0 MsGS 2F. .T.....
PDE 197507 10 182916 6.51126.64867.0 UKPAS 4F. .......
PDE 197507 20 143739.90-6.59155.05497.9 MsGS 8D. .T.....
PDE 197507 20 195427.70-7.10155.15447.7 MsGS 7F. .......
PDE 197510 01 032958.90-4.88102.20337.0 MsGS ... .......
PDE 197510 06 222416.20 -12.52166.50547.0 MsGS ... .......
PDE 197510 11 143515 -24.89 -175.12 97.8 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 197510 31 082802.6012.54125.99507.6 UKPAS 6C. .T.....
PDE 197511 01 011733.9013.84144.75 1137.1 UKPAS 7D. .......
PDE 197511 29 144740.4019.33 -155.02 57.2 MS01035 9C. 8T.V..V
PDE 197512 26 155638.70 -16.26 -172.47337.8 MsGS 5F. .T.....
PDE 197601 14 155634.90 -29.21 -177.89697.8 UKBRK 8D. .......
PDE 197601 14 164733.50 -28.43 -177.66338.2 UKBRK .D. .T.....
PDE 197601 21 100524.1044.92149.12417.0 MsGS 5F. .T.....
PDE 197602 04 090143.4015.32-89.10 57.5 Mw01000 9C. FT.....
PDE 197604 08 024027 40.31 63.77337.1 UKPAS 7D. .......
PDE 197605 17 025840.6040.38 63.47107.1 UKPAS 9C. .......
PDE 197605 29 140018.5024.53 98.71107.0 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197606 20 205313.40 3.40 96.32337.0 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 197606 25 191856.90-4.60140.09337.1 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197607 11 204147.50 7.41-78.13 37.0 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197607 27 194254.6039.57117.98237.5 Mw01000 .C. ......V
PDE 197607 28 104535.2039.66118.40267.4 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197608 02 105525.70 -20.61169.27527.0 UKPAS 4F. .......
PDE 197608 16 161107.30 6.26124.02337.9 MsGS 6C. .TS....
PDE 197610 29 025107.60-4.52139.92337.2 UKPAS .C. .......
PDE 197611 24 122218.8039.12 44.03367.3 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197611 30 004057.80 -20.52-68.92827.3 UKPAS 8C. .......
PDE 197703 04 192154.1045.77 26.76947.2 UKPAS 9C. .......
PDE 197703 18 214352.4016.77122.33377.0 MsGS 6C. .......
PDE 197703 21 211854.2027.61 56.39297.0 UKPAS .C. .......
PDE 197704 02 071522.70 -16.70 -172.10337.6 MsGS 6D. .T.....
PDE 197704 20 234250.50-9.89160.35197.6 UKPAS 7D. .T.....
PDE 197704 20 234913.10-9.84160.82337.5 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197704 21 042409.60-9.97160.73338.1 UKPAS 7C. .T.....
PDE 197706 22 120833.40 -22.88 -175.90657.2 UKBRK 7C. .T.....
PDE 197707 29 111545.30-8.03155.54337.2 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 197708 19 060855.20 -11.09118.46338.0 UKPAS .C. .T.....
PDE 197708 26 195001.40 -59.43-20.51337.1 MsGS ... .......
PDE 197710 10 115353.60 -25.86 -175.41337.2 MsGS ... .......
PDE 197711 23 092624.70 -31.03-67.77137.4 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197802 09 213512.70 -30.68 -177.36337.7 UKBRK ... .......
PDE 197803 07 024847.6032.01137.61 4397.0 UKPAS 6F. .......
PDE 197803 23 031520.3044.93148.44337.5 MsGS 6F. .T.....
PDE 197803 24 194750.7044.24148.86337.6 MsGS 6F. .T.....
PDE 197803 24 210548.2042.84 78.61337.1 MsGS 8D. ..S....
PDE 197806 12 081426.4038.19142.03447.7 MsGS 8C. .......
PDE 197806 17 151133.50 -17.10 -172.26337.2 UKBRK ... .......
PDE 197807 23 144236.9022.28121.51177.4 MsGS ... .T.....
PDE 197808 03 181117.10 -26.51-70.54587.0 UKPAS 9C. .......
PDE 197808 23 003832.2010.20-85.22567.2 UKBRK .D. .......
PDE 197809 16 153556.6033.39 57.43337.8 UKBRK .C. .......
PDE 197811 05 220207.10 -11.13162.14337.4 UKPAS 4F. .......
PDE 197811 29 195247.6016.01-96.59187.9 UKBRK .C. .......
PDE 197812 06 140201 44.59146.58917.5 UKPAS 8D. .......
PDE 197812 12 114416 7.33123.49337.4 UKBRK 4F. .......
PDE 197812 23 112312 23.25122.07337.2 UKPAS .C. .......
PDE 197903 14 110716.3017.81 -101.28497.6 MsGS .C. .......
PDE 197904 10 014222 2.96126.93377.2 UKBRK 2F. .......
PDE 197905 01 130337.10 -21.24169.80797.2 UKPAS 5F. .......
PDE 197908 26 143122.1019.07122.10157.1 MsGS 5F. .......
PDE 197909 12 051751.40-1.68136.04 57.9 MsGS .C. .T.....
PDE 197910 12 102522.30 -46.67165.71337.5 UKBRK .F. .......
PDE 197910 23 095106.70 -10.61161.28227.2 UKBRK 6D. .......
PDE 197911 16 152125.70 -16.76 -179.98337.0 UKBRK .D. .......
PDE 197911 27 171032.9033.96 59.73107.5 UKBRK .C. .......
PDE 197912 12 075903.30 1.60-79.36247.7 MsGS .C. .T.....
PDE 198001 01 164240 38.81-27.78107.2 UKBRK 8C. .......
PDE 198002 23 055103.2043.53146.75447.1 UKPAS 7F. .T.....
PDE 198003 08 221210.30 -22.67171.36387.1 UKBRK ... .......
PDE 198003 24 035951.3052.97 -167.67337.1 UKBRK 5D. .......
PDE 198004 13 180431.90 -23.47 -177.30797.2 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 198006 18 171454.50 9.48126.66547.2 UKBRK 5F. .......
PDE 198007 08 231919.80 -12.41166.38337.8 UKBRK .F. .......
PDE 198007 17 194223.20 -12.52165.92338.0 UKBRK .F. .T.....
PDE 198007 29 031156.30 -13.10166.34487.2 UKBRK ... .......
PDE 198010 10 122523.5036.19 1.35107.7 UKBRK .C. F......
PDE 198010 24 145335.1018.21-98.24727.0 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 198010 25 110005.10 -21.89169.85337.2 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 198011 08 102734 41.12 -124.25197.2 Mw01023 7C. .......
PDE 198101 23 215441.60 -29.68 60.84107.0 UKPAS ... .......
PDE 198101 30 085244.1051.74176.27337.1 UKBRK 4F. .......
PDE 198104 24 215006 -13.43166.42337.3 UKBRK ..C .......
PDE 198105 25 052514.40 -48.79164.36337.6 MsGS .FC .......
PDE 198107 06 030824.18 -22.29171.74337.0 MsGS ..M .......
PDE 198107 15 075908.47 -17.26167.60307.1 MSBRK .DM .......
PDE 198107 28 172224.6230.01 57.79337.3 MSBRK .CM .......
PDE 198109 01 092931.54 -14.96 -173.09257.6 MwGS 6FM .T.....
PDE 198110 16 032542.22 -33.13-73.07337.5 MSBRK 6CM .......
PDE 198110 25 032215.5718.05 -102.08337.4 MSBRK .CM .......
PDE 198112 19 141050.7239.24 25.23107.6 MSPAS .DM .......
PDE 198112 24 053320.71 -29.97 -177.61287.0 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198112 26 170532.52 -29.93 -177.74337.1 MsGS ..M .......
PDE 198201 11 061006.4913.75124.36457.4 MSPAS 6CM .......
PDE 198201 18 192724.4540.00 24.32107.0 MSPAS .FM .......
PDE 198206 07 065237.3716.61-98.15407.2 MSBRK .DM .......
PDE 198206 07 105940.1616.56-98.36337.0 MsGS .CM .......
PDE 198206 19 062158 13.31-89.34817.0 mbPAS 7CM ......S
PDE 198206 30 015734.1544.68151.14337.1 MSPAS 5FM .......
PDE 198207 07 104303.74 -51.22160.51107.3 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198208 05 203252.95 -12.60165.93307.5 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198208 19 155901.53 6.72-82.68107.0 MSBRK .CM .......
PDE 198212 19 174354.85 -24.13 -175.86337.7 MsGS ..M .......
PDE 198301 17 124129.7038.03 20.23147.2 MSBRK .DM .......
PDE 198301 24 081739.6116.15-95.23567.0 MSBRK .DM .......
PDE 198303 18 090550 -4.88153.58887.9 MSBRK 7DM .T....M
PDE 198304 03 025001.18 8.72-83.12377.3 MsGS .CM .......
PDE 198305 26 025959.6040.46139.10237.8 MSPAL 8CM .T.....
PDE 198307 11 125628.37 -60.89-53.02107.0 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198308 06 154351.2440.14 24.77 27.3 MSBRK .DM .......
PDE 198308 17 105554.1355.87161.29627.0 mbPAS ..M .......
PDE 198310 04 185213.30 -26.53-70.56147.4 MSBRK 7CM UT....S
PDE 198310 28 140606.6144.06 -113.86107.0 MwHRV 7CM F.....S
PDE 198311 24 053034.23-7.48128.17 1787.1 mbBRK .FM .......
PDE 198311 30 174600.67-6.85 72.11107.7 MSBRK 6DM .T.....
PDE 198312 02 030905.6614.07-91.92677.1 MSBRK 6FM .......
PDE 198312 30 235239.9336.37 70.74 2147.2 mbBRK 7CM .......
PDE 198402 07 213321.49 -10.01160.47187.7 MSPAL 6DM ......S
PDE 198403 19 202838.2440.32 63.35147.1 MSBRK 9CM .......
PDE 198403 24 094402.6044.12148.19447.0 MsGS 5FM .T.....
PDE 198410 15 102107.50 -15.86 -173.64 1287.1 mbPAS 5FM .......
PDE 198411 01 044850.27 8.19-38.79107.4 MSBRK .F. .......
PDE 198411 17 064930.02 0.20 98.03337.4 MSBRK .C. .......
PDE 198411 23 044606.38 -14.31171.28337.1 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198412 28 103753.7656.19163.46337.0 MsGS ..M .......
PDE 198503 03 224707.28 -33.13-71.87337.8 MsGS 8CM ST....M
PDE 198503 03 233831.43 -32.74-71.21337.0 MSBRK 4F. .......
PDE 198504 09 015659.48 -34.13-71.62377.5 MSBRK 6CM .......
PDE 198505 10 153550.59-5.60151.04267.3 MSBRK 8C. S.....M
PDE 198506 03 120621.13 -15.29 -173.52337.0 MSBRK 4FM .......
PDE 198507 03 043651.73-4.44152.83337.4 MSBRK 7DM .TS...M
PDE 198508 23 124156.1639.43 75.22 67.5 MSPAL .CM ......M
PDE 198509 19 131747.3518.19 -102.53278.0 MwHRV 9CM .TS...M
PDE 198509 21 013713.4717.80 -101.65307.6 MsGS 6CM .T.....
PDE 198509 26 072751.13 -34.69 -178.66517.0 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 198511 17 094021.29-1.64134.91107.1 MsGS .D. .......
PDE 198511 28 022542.34 -14.04166.24337.2 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198511 28 034954.15 -13.99166.18337.6 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198512 21 011322.41 -13.97166.52437.6 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198604 30 070718.1218.40 -102.97267.0 MsGS .D. .......
PDE 198605 07 224710.8751.52 -174.78338.0 MwHRV 6DM .T.....
PDE 198606 24 031130.93-4.45143.94 1027.1 MsGS 7DM ......S
PDE 198608 14 193913.67 1.79126.52337.4 MSBRK 4FM .......
PDE 198610 20 064609.98 -28.12 -176.37298.3 MSBRK .FM .T.....
PDE 198611 14 212010.5523.90121.57337.8 MsGS 8CM ......S
PDE 198701 30 222942.09 -60.06-26.92477.0 MsGS ..M .......
PDE 198702 08 183358.39-6.09147.69547.6 MSBRK 7CM ......M
PDE 198703 05 091705.28 -24.39-70.16627.3 MsGS 6CM .T.....
PDE 198703 06 041041.96 0.15-77.82107.0 MSBRK .CM ......S
PDE 198707 06 024942.78 -14.07167.83477.1 MSBRK .FM .T.....
PDE 198709 03 064013.91 -58.89158.51337.7 MSBRK ..M .......
PDE 198710 06 041906.08 -17.94 -172.23167.3 MsGS .FM .T.....
PDE 198710 16 204801.64-6.27149.06477.7 MSBRK 8DM .T.....
PDE 198710 25 165405.69-2.32138.36337.0 MsGS .F. .......
PDE 198711 17 084653.3258.59 -143.27107.0 MLPMR 5FM .T.....
PDE 198711 30 192319.5958.68 -142.79107.9 MwHRV 6DM .T.....
PDE 198802 24 035203.2913.48124.62247.1 MSBRK 5DM .......
PDE 198803 06 223538.1456.95 -143.03107.8 MwHRV 5DM .T.....
PDE 198804 12 231955.57 -17.19-72.31337.0 MsGS 4FM .......
PDE 198806 18 224942.3726.86 -111.00107.0 MsGS .FM .......
PDE 198808 06 003624.6525.15 95.13907.3 MSBRK .CM S.Q...S
PDE 198808 10 043826.17 -10.37160.82347.4 MsGS .CM .T.....
PDE 198811 06 130319.3422.79 99.61177.3 MsGS .CM ......S
PDE 198904 25 142900.5116.77-99.33197.1 MSBRK .C. .......
PDE 198905 23 105446.32 -52.34160.57108.2 MsGS 5FM .T.....
PDE 198910 27 210451.82 -11.02162.35247.1 MSBRK .FM ......M
PDE 198911 01 182534.9439.84142.76287.4 MsGS 6FM .T.....
PDE 198912 15 184345.03 8.34126.73247.4 MSBRK 6CM .......
PDE 198912 30 231851.64-3.41145.97387.0 MSBRK 3F. .......
PDE 199003 03 121627.96 -22.12175.16337.6 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199003 05 163812.57 -18.32168.06207.1 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 199003 25 132255.60 9.92-84.81227.3 MwHRV 8CM ......S
PDE 199004 05 211235.5515.12147.60117.4 MwHRV .FM .T.....
PDE 199004 18 133919.01 1.19122.86257.6 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199005 12 045008.7149.04141.85 6057.2 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199005 20 022201.62 5.12 32.15147.2 MwGS .DM .......
PDE 199005 24 200008.19 5.36 31.85167.1 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199005 24 200923.24-7.36120.36 5887.1 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199005 30 104006.1445.84 26.67897.0 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199006 14 074056.2111.76121.90187.1 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199006 20 210009.9836.96 49.41187.4 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 199007 16 072634.6115.68121.17257.7 MwHRV .CM S.....M
PDE 199007 27 123759.55 -15.35167.46 1257.2 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199008 12 212521.95 -19.43169.13 1407.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199010 17 143013.16 -10.97-70.78 5987.0 MwGS .DM .......
PDE 199011 06 201429.7453.45169.87247.1 MwHRV 4FM .......
PDE 199012 30 191418.93-5.10150.97 1787.5 MwGS .DM .......
PDE 199101 05 145711.5923.61 95.90197.0 MwHRV .DM ......S
PDE 199102 18 023725.12 8.87126.48237.0 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 199104 22 215651.82 9.69-83.07107.6 MwHRV XCM UT....M
PDE 199104 29 091248.1042.45 43.67177.0 MwHRV 8CM ......S
PDE 199105 19 005801.73 1.16122.96337.0 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 199105 30 131741.9754.57 -161.61287.0 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199106 09 074502.13 -20.25 -176.22 2657.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199106 20 051852.51 1.20122.79317.5 MwHRV 6DM .......
PDE 199106 23 212228.94 -26.80-63.35 5587.3 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199107 06 121949.56 -13.11-72.19 1047.0 MwGS 6DM .......
PDE 199108 17 221714.6841.82 -125.40137.0 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199109 30 002146.41 -20.88 -178.59 5667.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199110 14 155812.79-9.09158.44237.2 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199111 19 222851.09 4.55-77.44217.2 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199112 22 084313.4145.53151.02247.6 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199112 27 040558.24 -56.03-25.27107.2 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199204 25 180604.2140.37 -124.32157.2 MwHRV 8CM .T....S
PDE 199205 15 070505.34-6.07147.57587.2 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199205 17 094919.11 7.24126.64327.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199205 17 101531.31 7.19126.76337.3 MwGS .DM .T.....
PDE 199205 27 051338.81 -11.12165.24187.0 MwHRV .FM .T.....
PDE 199206 28 115734.1234.20 -116.44 17.3 Mw01046 9CM F.S....
PDE 199207 11 104419.76 -22.48 -178.41 3777.2 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199208 19 020437.4142.14 73.57277.3 MwGS 9CM ......M
PDE 199209 02 001601.6911.74-87.34447.7 MwHRV .CM .T.....
PDE 199210 11 192426.29 -19.25168.95 1297.4 MwHRV 8FM .......
PDE 199210 18 151159.11 7.07-76.86107.2 MwGS .CM ...V..M
PDE 199212 12 052926.35-8.48121.90277.8 MwHRV .CM .T....M
PDE 199212 20 205247.28-6.58130.39777.3 MwBRK .FM .......
PDE 199301 15 110605.9543.30143.69 1027.6 MwHRV 9CM S.....S
PDE 199303 06 030549.87 -10.97164.18207.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199305 11 182651.32 7.22126.57587.0 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 199305 24 235128.24 -22.67-66.54 2217.0 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199306 08 130336.4851.22157.83707.5 MwHRV 7DM .T.....
PDE 199307 12 131711.9642.85139.20167.7 MwHRV 8CM .T....S
PDE 199308 08 083424.9312.98144.80597.8 MwHRV 9CM .T....M
PDE 199308 09 124248.1936.38 70.87 2147.0 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199308 10 005153.25 -45.28166.93287.0 MwGS 6FM .....T.
PDE 199309 10 191254.6214.72-92.64347.2 MwGS .CM ......S
PDE 199311 13 011804.1851.93158.65347.0 MwGS 6FM .......
PDE 199312 29 074814.20 -20.23169.79337.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199401 21 022429.96 1.01127.73197.0 MwGS .CM .......
PDE 199402 12 175823.99 -20.55169.36277.0 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199403 09 232806.78 -18.04 -178.41 5627.6 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199403 14 043015.75-1.28-23.57107.0 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199406 02 181734.02 -10.48112.83187.8 MwGS .CM .T.....
PDE 199406 09 003316.23 -13.84-67.55 6318.2 MwGS .CM ......S
PDE 199407 13 023556.02 -16.62167.52337.2 MwHRV 6FM .......
PDE 199407 21 183631.7442.34132.87 4717.3 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 199409 01 151553.0840.40 -125.68107.0 MwGS 6DM .T.....
PDE 199410 04 132255.8443.77147.32148.3 MwHRV 9CM .T....S
PDE 199410 09 075539.5843.90147.92337.3 MwHRV 6FM .T.....
PDE 199411 14 191530.6613.52121.07317.1 MwHRV .CM FT....M
PDE 199412 28 121923.0340.53143.42267.8 MwHRV XCM .T.....
PDE 199501 06 223734.3240.25142.18267.0 MwHRV 7CM .......
PDE 199502 05 225105.14 -37.76178.75217.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199504 07 220656.89 -15.20 -173.53217.4 MwGS 5FM .T.....
PDE 199504 21 003446.0912.06125.58207.2 MwHRV 4DM .T.....
PDE 199505 05 035345.0512.63125.30167.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199505 16 201244.22 -23.01169.90207.7 MwHRV 3FM .T.....
PDE 199505 27 130352.6552.63142.83117.1 MwGS 9CM F......
PDE 199507 03 195050.62 -29.21 -177.59357.2 MwGS 6FM .......
PDE 199507 30 051123.63 -23.34-70.29458.0 MwGS 7CM .T....S
PDE 199508 16 102728.63-5.80154.18307.7 MwHRV .DM .T....S
PDE 199508 16 231023.98-5.77154.35337.2 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199508 23 070602.7618.86145.22 5947.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199509 14 140431.4316.78-98.60237.4 MwGS .CM .......
PDE 199510 03 015123.90-2.75-77.88247.0 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 199510 09 153553.9119.06 -104.21338.0 MwHRV .CM ST....S
PDE 199510 18 103726.3827.93130.18287.1 MwHRV 7CM .T.....
PDE 199510 21 023857.1216.84-93.47 1597.2 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199511 22 041511.9428.83 34.80107.2 MwHRV .CM .Q....L
PDE 199512 03 180108.9944.66149.30337.9 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199512 25 044324.46-6.90129.15 1417.1 MwHRV 6FM .......
PDE 199601 01 080510.83 0.73119.93247.9 MwHRV .CM .T.....
PDE 199602 07 213646.3045.32149.89427.2 MwHRV 5DM .......
PDE 199602 17 055930.55-0.89136.95338.2 MwHRV .CM .T.....
PDE 199602 21 125101.30-9.59-79.59107.5 MwHRV 4CM .......
PDE 199602 25 030815.8715.98-98.07217.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199604 16 003054.67 -24.06 -177.04 1107.2 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199604 29 144041.09-6.52155.00447.2 MwGS .CM .......
PDE 199606 02 025209.5510.80-42.25107.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199606 10 040335.4851.56 -177.63337.9 MwHRV 6FM .T.....
PDE 199606 10 152456 51.48 -176.85267.3 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199606 11 182255.7312.61125.15337.1 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199606 17 112218.54-7.14122.59 5877.9 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199607 22 141935.77 1.00120.45337.0 MwGS 8DM .......
PDE 199608 05 223822.09 -20.69 -178.31 5507.4 MwHRV 2FM .......
PDE 199611 12 165944.03 -14.99-75.68337.7 MwHRV 8CM .T.....
PDE 199701 11 202826.0218.22 -102.76337.2 MwGS .CM .......
PDE 199701 23 021522.97 -22.00-65.72 2767.1 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 199702 27 210802.3629.98 68.21337.1 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 199704 21 120226.43 -12.58166.68337.7 MwGS .DM .T.....
PDE 199705 10 075729.7233.83 59.81107.3 MwGS .CM ......S
PDE 199705 25 232233.19 -32.12179.79 3327.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199707 09 192413.1710.60-63.49197.0 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 199709 20 161132.15 -28.68 -177.62307.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199710 14 095318.15 -22.10 -176.77 1677.8 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199710 15 010333.46 -30.93-71.22587.1 MwGS 7CM ......S
PDE 199710 28 061517.33-4.37-76.68 1127.2 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199711 08 100252.6135.07 87.32337.5 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199711 15 185924.30 -15.15167.38 1237.0 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199711 25 121433.63 1.24122.54247.0 MwGS 6DM .......
PDE 199712 05 112654.6954.84162.04337.8 MwHRV 7FM .T.....
PDE 199712 22 020550.08-5.49147.87 1797.2 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 199801 04 061158.97 -22.30170.91 1007.5 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199801 30 121608.69 -23.91-70.21427.1 MwHRV 7CM .......
PDE 199803 25 031225.07 -62.88149.53108.1 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199803 29 194816.21 -17.55 -179.09 5377.2 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199804 01 175623.36-0.54 99.26557.0 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199805 03 233021.9122.31125.31337.5 MwGS 5FM .T.....
PDE 199807 16 115636.42 -11.04166.16 1107.0 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199807 17 084913.28-2.96141.93107.0 MwGS .CM .T.....
PDE 199808 04 185920.10-0.59-80.39337.2 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 199808 20 064055.8228.93139.33 4407.1 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 199811 09 053844.22-6.92128.95337.0 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 199811 29 141031.96-2.07124.89337.7 MwGS 7CM .......
PDE 199901 19 033533.84-4.60153.24 1147.0 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199902 06 214759.47 -12.85166.70907.3 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 199903 04 085201.90 5.40121.94337.1 MwHRV 5DM .......
PDE 199904 05 110804 -5.59149.57 1507.4 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199904 08 131034.0843.61130.35 5657.1 MwGS 4FM .......
PDE 199905 10 203302.09-5.16150.88 1387.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 199905 16 005120.46-4.75152.49737.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199906 15 204205.9318.39-97.44707.0 MwHRV 8CM ......S
PDE 199908 17 000139.1340.75 29.86177.6 MwHRV .CM F......
PDE 199909 20 174718.4923.77120.98337.7 MwHRV XCM 5.....S
PDE 199909 30 163115.6916.06-96.93607.5 MwHRV 8CM ......S
PDE 199910 16 094644.1334.59 -116.27 07.1 MwHRV 7CM F......
PDE 199911 12 165719.5540.76 31.16107.2 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 199911 15 054243.22-1.34 88.98107.0 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 199911 19 135646.45-6.35148.76337.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 199911 26 132115.57 -16.42168.21337.5 MwHRV .CM .T....S
PDE 199912 06 231233.9257.41 -154.49667.0 MwGS 6DM .......
PDE 199912 11 180336.4515.77119.74337.3 MwHRV 6CM .......
PDE 200001 08 164720.58 -16.92 -174.25 1837.2 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 200002 25 014358.64 -19.53173.82337.1 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200003 28 110022.5122.34143.73 1267.6 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200004 23 092723.32 -28.31-62.99 6087.0 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200005 04 042116.21-1.11123.57267.6 MwHRV 7CM .T.....
PDE 200005 12 184318.12 -23.55-66.45 2257.2 MwHRV 6CM .......
PDE 200006 04 162826.17-4.72102.09337.9 MwHRV 6CM ......S
PDE 200006 18 144413.31 -13.80 97.45107.9 MwHRV .FM .T.....
PDE 200008 06 072712.9028.86139.56 3947.4 MwHRV 4FM .......
PDE 200010 04 165844.31 -15.42166.91237.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200010 29 083708.77-4.77153.95507.0 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200011 16 045456.74-3.98152.17338.0 MwHRV .CM STS...S
PDE 200011 16 074216.93-5.23153.10307.8 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 200011 17 210156.49-5.50151.78337.8 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200012 06 171106.4039.57 54.80307.0 MwGS 7CM .......
PDE 200101 01 065704.17 6.90126.58337.5 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200101 09 164928 -14.93167.17 1037.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200101 10 160244.2357.08 -153.21337.0 MwHRV 6FM .......
PDE 200101 13 173332.3813.05-88.66607.7 MwHRV .CM ......S
PDE 200101 26 031640.5023.42 70.23167.7 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 200102 13 192830.26-4.68102.56367.4 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200102 24 072348.73 1.27126.25357.1 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 200106 03 024157.16 -29.67 -178.63 1787.2 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200106 23 203314.13 -16.26-73.64338.4 MwHRV 8CM .T....S
PDE 200107 07 093843.52 -17.54-72.08337.6 MwHRV 6CM .......
PDE 200108 21 065206.25 -36.81 -179.57337.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200110 12 150216.8412.69144.98377.0 MwHRV 7CM .......
PDE 200110 19 032844.46-4.10123.91337.5 MwHRV 4FM .......
PDE 200110 31 091020 -5.91150.20337.0 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 200111 14 092610.0135.95 90.54107.8 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 200112 12 140235.04 -42.81124.69107.1 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200201 02 172248.76 -17.60167.86217.2 MwHRV .CM .T....S
PDE 200203 03 120819.7436.50 70.48 2257.4 MwHRV .CM ......M
PDE 200203 05 211609.13 6.03124.25317.5 MwHRV XCM .T....S
PDE 200203 31 065250.4924.28122.18327.1 MwGS 9CM .T....S
PDE 200204 26 160607 13.09144.62857.1 MwGS 7CM .......
PDE 200206 28 171930.2743.75130.67 5667.3 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 200208 19 110101.19 -21.70 -179.51 5807.7 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200208 19 110824.31 -23.88178.49 6757.7 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200209 08 184423.71-3.30142.95137.6 MwHRV .CM UT....M
PDE 200210 10 105020.57-1.76134.30107.6 MwHRV .CM 5T....M
PDE 200211 02 012610.70 2.82 96.08307.4 MwGS 6CM .......
PDE 200211 03 221241 63.52 -147.44 47.9 MwHRV 9CM F.S...M
PDE 200211 17 045353.5447.82146.21 4597.3 MwGS 4FM .......
PDE 200301 20 084306.07 -10.49160.77337.3 MwHRV .FM .T.....
PDE 200301 22 020634.6118.77 -104.10247.6 MwGS 8CM .TS...S
PDE 200303 17 163617.3151.27177.98337.1 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 200305 26 092433.4038.85141.57687.0 MwGS 8CM ......M
PDE 200305 26 192327.94 2.35128.85317.0 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 200306 20 061938.91-7.61-71.72 5587.1 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 200307 15 202750.53-2.60 68.38107.6 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200308 04 043720.13 -60.53-43.41107.6 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 200308 21 121249.79 -45.10167.14287.2 MwHRV .DM .TS...S
PDE 200309 25 195006.3641.81143.91278.3 MwHRV 8CM .T....S
PDE 200309 25 210800.0341.77143.59337.4 MwHRV 8FM .......
PDE 200309 27 113325.0850.04 87.81167.3 MwGS XCM S.....S
PDE 200310 31 010628.2837.81142.62107.0 MwGS 5FM .T.....
PDE 200311 17 064306.8051.15178.65337.8 MwHRV 4FM .T.....
PDE 200312 27 160059.45 -22.01169.77107.3 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200401 03 162321.02 -22.25169.68227.1 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200402 05 210502.84-3.62135.54167.0 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 200402 07 024235.21-4.00135.02107.3 MwGS .DM .......
PDE 200407 15 042714.73 -17.66 -178.76 5657.1 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200407 25 143519.06-2.43103.98 5827.3 MwGS .FM .......
PDE 200409 05 100707.8233.07136.62147.2 MwHRV 6CM .T.....
PDE 200409 05 145718.6133.18137.07107.4 MwGS 6CM .T.....
PDE 200410 09 212653.6911.42-86.67357.0 MwHRV 4FM .......
PDE 200411 11 212641.15-8.15124.87107.5 MwHRV 8CM ......S
PDE 200411 15 090656.56 4.70-77.51157.2 MwGS .CM ......V
PDE 200411 22 202623.90 -46.68164.72107.1 MwHRV .DM .......
PDE 200411 26 022503.31-3.61135.40107.1 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 200411 28 183214.1343.01145.12397.0 MwGS .CM .T.....
PDE 200412 23 145904.41 -49.31161.35108.1 MwHRV .FM .T.....
PDE 200412 26 005853.45 3.30 95.98309.1 Mw01100 9CM STS...M
PDE 200412 26 042129.81 6.91 92.96397.2 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200502 05 122318.94 5.29123.34 5257.1 MwHRV 3CM .......
PDE 200503 02 104212.23-6.53129.93 2017.1 MwGS 5FM .......
PDE 200503 28 160936.53 2.09 97.11308.6 MwHRV 8CM 3TS....
PDE 200506 13 224433.90 -19.99-69.20 1157.8 MwGS 7CM ......S
PDE 200506 15 025054.1941.29 -125.95167.2 MwHRV 4FM .T.....
PDE 200507 24 154206.21 7.92 92.19167.2 MwHRV 5DM .......
PDE 200508 16 024628.4038.28142.04367.2 MwHRV 8CM .T....S
PDE 200509 09 072643.73-4.54153.47907.6 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200509 26 015537.67-5.68-76.40 1157.5 MwGS 6CM .......
PDE 200510 08 035040.8034.54 73.59267.6 MwHRV 8CM ..S...M
PDE 200511 14 213851.4238.11144.90117.0 MwHRV 4FM .T.....
PDE 200601 02 061049.76 -60.96-21.61137.4 MwHRV ..M .......
PDE 200601 02 221340.49 -19.93 -178.18 5827.2 MwHRV .FM .......
PDE 200601 27 165853.67-5.47128.13 3977.6 MwHRV 5FM .......
PDE 200602 22 221907.80 -21.32 33.58117.0 MwGS .CM .......
PDE 200604 20 232502.1560.95167.09227.6 MwHRV .CM .......
PDE 200605 03 152640.29 -20.19 -174.12558.0 MwHRV 7CM .T.....
PDE 200605 16 103923.34 -31.81 -179.31 1527.4 MwGS 3FM .......
PDE 200607 17 081926.68-9.28107.42207.7 MwHRV .CM .T.....
PDE 200608 20 034148.04 -61.03-34.37137.0 MwGS ..M .......
PDE 200611 15 111413.5746.59153.27108.3 MwGCMT4CM .T.....
PDE 200612 26 122621.1421.80120.55107.1 MwGS 7CM .......
PDE 200701 13 042321.1646.24154.52108.1 MwGCMT6FM .T.....
PDE 200701 21 112745.06 1.07126.28227.5 MwGCMT6CM .......
PDE 200703 25 004001.61 -20.62169.36347.1 MwGS 3FM .T.....
PDE 200704 01 203958.71-8.47157.04248.1 MwGCMT.CM UT....S
PDE 200708 01 170851.40 -15.60167.68 1207.2 MwGS 7DM .......
PDE 200708 08 170504.92-5.86107.42 2807.5 MwGCMT5FM .......
PDE 200708 15 234057.89 -13.39-76.60398.0 MwGCMT9CM .T....M
PDE 200709 02 010518.15 -11.61165.76357.2 MwGCMT..M .......
PDE 200709 12 111026.83-4.44101.37348.5 MwGCMT6CM .TS....
PDE 200709 12 234903.72-2.62100.84357.9 MwGCMT6CM .......
PDE 200709 13 033528.72-2.13 99.63227.0 MwGCMT3CM .......
PDE 200709 28 133857.8822.01142.67 2607.5 MwGCMT4FM .......
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------------------------------------------------------------------------
*USGS National Earthquake Information Center*
USGS Privacy Statement <http://www.usgs.gov/privacy.html> | Disclaimer
<http://www.usgs.gov/disclaimer.html> FirstGov <http://firstgov.gov/> 回复 11# pbs
利用统计学预测地震发生是科学行为，祝贺你取得成绩！
我们将继续关注。 回复 12# 山水如屏
这种交替在南北半球出现7级以上地震的确是一种现象，尽管可能不能持续，但可以告诉我们一些地球内部活动的信息。
我个人认为在地球地震活动处于“安静”状态时，这种南北半球交替7级以上地震可能是全球地震“本底”的一种表现。 回复 13# 秋翁感悟
我对这种现象感兴趣，通过总结希望能够得到一些地震起源的机制。 回复 14# pbs
全球地震带的分布不具有南北对称的特征，基于这样的非对称物理模型不难判断，在短期内表现出“南北半球交替7级以上地震”的规律只是统计样本过少的原因。 4月11日的印尼8.6级和8.2级群震发生在北纬2度和0.8度位置，属于北半球地震，符合我的7级地震南北半球分配预测。
根据主震减1.5级是余震的最高级别，可以预测未来一些时间内同地区可能有7级余震，但这都属于这次地震范围，不在我的南北半球地震预测范围。
根据这次地震的情况，预测下一个7级以上地震将在南半球发生，时间是5月。
另外印尼地震后，有关地震当局发布海啸警报是错误的，因为这两个8级地震的震源机制是走滑，走滑地震不会引起海啸。 回复 16# pbs
前面笔者曾经说过，全球地震带的分布不具有南北对称的特征，基于这样的非对称物理模型不难判断，在短期内表现出“南北半球交替7级以上地震”的规律只是统计样本过少的原因。
印尼两个8，接着墨西哥刚刚又来了个7.0，都是在北半球，地震发生规律应该没那么简单，还是得多统计。如果南北半球统计出的7级地震数明显不等的话，显然交替发生规律值得推敲。 墨西哥那个地震是6.5级，以USGS数据为准。
MAP 6.5 2012/04/11 22:55:11 18.272 -102.732 20.0 MICHOACAN, MEXICO
我的题目就讲清楚了以USGS为准。
至于出现南北半球7级以上地震交替现象是客观存在的，有必要研究这个现象。
这个现象的不连续性肯定是会出现的，什么条件导致这个对称性的破坏也值得研究。 回复 18# pbs
有两点需要注意：
1、usgs结果是经常修订的，比方说昨天从8.9到8.6修改了三次，7级上下的地震要小心了。
2、usgs既做MW震级也做MS震级，完全可能出现一个超过7，一个不到7级的情况。 另外，就算是对称的物理模型，也不一定就体现交替的规律。最典型的就是扔硬币啦。正反面从统计上说各占50%，但并不是正反面交替出现。 我们还是以现在的USGS的数据为准。
USGS对印度尼西亚的远震可能会多调整几次，而对墨西哥比较近的地震，其400台地震仪组成的监测台网给出的精度是比较高的。
我一般注意到USGS的调整以下调为多。
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