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http://www.nextearthquake.com/ea ... ns_china_region.htm
该网站建于2007年，在08年成功预测汶川大地震后把中国南部地区作为其重点关注的地区之一。
目前该网站全球地震日期发生时间的预测准确率为83% ，震级预测的准确率为平均 94%。网站预测发布的时间最早的震前39天，平均提前八天。
以下是对全球2010年二月下半月的预测：（其中大部分已证实，还有的有待检验）
from February 14-28* 2010
REGION
Expected
Magnitude
Ranges
& Dates
Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
Accuracy compared to mid range (%)
Observed
Date & Location
Alaska
Anchorage Region
newly defined
within only 130 km of
Anchorage, at Lat 61.225 and Lon -149.889
M1.8-M3.8
expected about Feb 25+/-3 days (posted 0525 hours 11th Feb)
M3.0
93%
18th February 2010
Lat 62.014 Lon -150.784
109 km NNW of Anchorage, Central Alaska
(USGS spource)
forecast 7 days ahead
California 'Northern'
within 400 km of a center
point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at
Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86
M2.7-M4.7
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M4.1
90%
15th February 2010
Lat 36.076 Lon -117.862
227 km N of Los Angeles Civic Center (USGS source)
forecast 19 days ahead
Nth California & Sth Oregon
Coast & Off Coast
within 400 km of
Crescent City, California
Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20
M2.5-M4.5
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M3.3
94%
14th February 2010
Lat 43.016 Lon -126.517
236 km NW of Crescent City Off the Coast of Oregon
(USGS source)
forecast 18 days ahead
California
'Southern'
newly defined
within only 160 km of
Glen Avon, 10 km NW of Riverside, Southern CA at
Lat 34.012 Lon -117.484
M2.1-M4.1
expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0850 hours 15th Feb)
M3.6
86%
19th February 2010
Lat 34.015 Lon -117.184
98 km E of Los Angeles Civic Center, Greater LA Area (USGS source)
forecast 4 days ahead
Caribbean
Puerto Rico Area
within ≈250 km of center
60 km NNE of San Juan
at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Chile
Northern Region
within 400 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M5.3
81%
18th February 2010
Lat -23.105 Lon -68.180
235 km ENE of Antofagasta,
Chile (USGS source)
forecast 22 days ahead
China
Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a center point at
Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Feb 21+/-3 days
(posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
China
Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
M3.1-M5.1
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America
Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan) M4.6
92%
21st February 2010
Lat 6.696 Lon -72.898
265 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia
(USGS source)
forecast 24 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.6-M6.6
expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
M5.8
97%
22nd February 2010
Lat -21.551 Lon -173.824
155 km ESE of Nuku'alofa, Tonga (USGS source)
forecast 25 days ahead
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N
and Lon 20-25°E
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
M4.0
93%
21st February 2010
Lat 37.93 Lon 21.46
42 km SW of Pátrai, Southern Greece
(EMSC source)
forecast 25 days ahead
Guatemala -
El Salvador
Region
within ≈500 km from
Santa Ana, El Salvador
at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Hawaii
New zone within only
85 km of a center point at
Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5
on Island of Hawaii
M1.7-M3.7
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M3.4
79%
18th February 2010
Lat 20.055 Lon -155.966
17 km NW of Puako, HI (USGS source - subject to review)
forecast 22 days ahead
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
M3.7-M5.7
expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
Honshu Japan
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Feb 19+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
M5.0
98%
16th February 2010
Lat 34.924 Lon 139.876
85 km S of Tokyo, Near the South Coast of Honshu
(USGS source)
forecast 21 days ahead
Italy
'Rome Region'
within ≈400 km of Rome centered at
Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488
M2.9-M4.9
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Islamabad
Region,
Pakistan
within ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
M4.7
92%
22nd February 2010
Lat 35.984 Lon 70.689
125 km S of Feyzabad, Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan
(USGS source)
forecast 25 days ahead
Java - Sunda Strait Region
(includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia)
within ≈450 km from
a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Feb 21+/-3 days (posted 0800 hours 28th Jan)
M4.9
100%
20th February 2010
Lat -7.358 Lon 105.907
165 mkm SW of Jakarta, Java (USGS source)
forecast 23 days ahead
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan to
Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan
at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Feb 18+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M4.7 94% 17th February 2010
Lat 39.55 Lon 75.22
65 km W of Kashi, Southern Xinjiang, China (EMSC source)
forecast 21 days ahead
Mexico
Southern Region
newly defined
within ≈500 km of Oaxaca, OAXACA, Mex.
Lat 17.064 Lon -96.720
M3.2-M5.2
expected about Feb 19+/-3 days (posted 1239 hours 13th Feb)
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville
within ≈500 km of
Sulu, New Britain at
Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
New Zealand
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island,
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Feb 21+/-3 days
(posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M5.0
90%
18th February 2010
Lat -40.17 Lon 173.78
150 km NW of Wellington, North Island, NZ
(GNS Science/GeoNet)
forecast 22 days ahead
New Zealand
Southern Region
within ≈500 km from
Gore, NE of Invercargill,
at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937,
South Island NZ
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
Seattle USA
-Vancouver Island Region CANADA
newly defined
within 400 km radius of Tofino, Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and including Seattle, USA, to the SE.
Tofino is at Lat 49.144 and Lon -125.892
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0805 hours 12th Feb)
Peru
Central to Southern Region
within ≈500 km of a center, Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Feb 23+/-3 days (posted 0805 hours 12th Feb)
Philippines Region
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589
The center is 315 ENE from Manila.
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)
Samoa-Tonga
Newly defined
within only 250 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan) M5.0 100% 19th February 2010
Lat -15.274 Lon -173.492
250 km SW of Apia, Tonga (USGS source)
forecast 23 days ahead
Solomons
Region
Newly defined
within ≈450 km of center
at Lat -8.912 Lon 157.307, including Guadalcanal Is. in SE to tip of Bougainville (PNG) in NW sector.
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)
M4.9
100%
17th February 2010
Lat -8.68 Lon 157.20
309 km W of Honiara, Solomon Islands
(USGS source)
forecast 6 days ahead
Spain Region
within ≈400 km of
Reillo at Lat 39.905
and Lon -1.875
M1.2-M3.2 expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)
Sumatra
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Feb 20+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
M5.1
88%
16th February 2010
Lat 4.613 Lon 93.077
270 WSW of Banda Aceh, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra
(USGS source)
forecast 20 days ahead
Sumatra
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Feb 22+/-3 days (posted 1130 hours 27th Jan)
M5.1
94%
22nd February 2010
Lat -3.651 Lon 101.449
92 km W of Bengkulu,. Southern Sumatra (USGS source)
forcast 26 days ahead
Taiwan Region
Newly defined
within 225 km of a center
near East Coast of Taiwan at Lat 23.763 Lon 121.689
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M5.4
96%
22nd February 2010
Lat 24.080 Lon 122.927
180 km SE of T'pai-pei, Taiwan (USGS source)
forecast 26 days ahead
Turkey
'Western Region'
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4
M3.3-M5.3
expected about Feb 24+/-3 days (posted 0345 hours 11th Feb)
Vanuatu-
Santa Cruz Islands within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Feb 17+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 27th Jan)
M5.4
98%
20th February 2010
Lat -13.625 Lon 166.677
215 km NNW of Luganville, Vanuatu (USGS source)
forecast 24 days ahead |
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匿名
发表于 2010-2-23 13:33
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