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因为今年云南气候干旱加之地震频发,一直十分担心,开始关注有国内外关于地震预测的网站。
其中有一个“长期地震预测网站”(是按字面意思直译的, Long-term Forecasts)一直在预测方面有着很高的准确率,但是云南不在其研究范围内,于是我抱着试试的态度给这个创办网站的教授发(网页上给出了他的邮箱地址邮件),对于他的是否会回复并没有抱太大希望,但是今天发现他在3月7日已经给我了回信。
下面是我发的邮件和专家回复的内容,红字为回复(我在邮箱的称呼隐去):
Hello ,
Thank you for your interest and support.
I do understand your concerns, but unfortunately I cannot give you any specific help as I am unable to add your region (say a 500 km radius zone around your city) to my Long-term Tables due to constraints on research and time.
Also, even if I had such a zone covered in my tables, it is not possible to pinpoint the city or area where the expected quake might hit. I understand that most of your large quakes occur in the mountainous country to your west, so I would try not to worry too much, although I realise that an M7 in your mountains may still give you quite a shaking.
Finally, I am unable to rule out a large earthquake during 2010, but not for the reasons that you give. The patterns of past events in your region suggest that it is possible, but by no means definite, that a large quake (say M6-7) could occur during this year.
Take care!
Kind regards,
- Hide quoted text -
----- Original Message -----
From:
To:
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 9:52 PM
Subject: A Chinese girl calling for help!! (about the earthquake in southern China)
Dear
I am a young girl living in a remot city in the southern part of China.
I visited your website just now.I really appreciate your dedication to the seismology, improving the ability of poredicting the earthquakes is really important for bettering our lives...
maybe I'm being overcautious..but I really hope you could help me.
00:50 am, 21th feb, an earthquake of M2.9 took place in my hometown---------Lat25.30 N, Lon103.48E ,a city named qujing in Yunnan province . the earthquake lasted only a few seconds but building which I live in faltered so vehemently that I was nearly scared to tears...
however, that earthquake alone couldn't make me so worried.I think it is a combination of things that thightened my nerves.
The weather has been quite abnormal for months here in Qujing, we are now going through the toughest drought since 1950. For months, not even a single drop of rain has fallen.
Besides, about ten days ago, there was a sharp drop of the temperature.The highest tempertature of day declined from 21℃ to below 8℃, I've been living here since I was born, and as far as I remember, I experienced no similar weather change like this...
Also,I read an article about the sunspot cycle and its relationship with earthquake (exmeplified with a chronicle of the all the destructive earthquake in the city's history,that is from ),to be honest, I'm not familiar with seismology and its terms, but I thinik it can be deduced from the article that 2010 is a year in which an earthquake of destructive power is highly possible in the city of Qujing.
I learned from your web page that there are two predictions in China that haven't yet been defined...Would you please let me know wether it is possible that an earthquake would take place in Qujing( Lat25.30 N, Lon103.48E)?
Hope my igorance won't annoy you and hope my request won't bother you much.
thank you again!
a girl from China |
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