D地震预测交流5----随风（预测一项，已证实是成功预测帖）

1随风1

注意：北纬35--36，东经73.5--74.5--------巴基斯坦控克什米尔地区，未来96小时内，将发生5.1-5.6mw地震。。。。。。。。

指南针

关注。。。

tanlilin

关注。

1随风1

地震如期而至，在预测发出后第65小时左右，地震发生，纬度偏差0.6，经度偏差2.74，震级精准。
发震时刻: 2012-02-16 12:07:23.060
纬度: 36.6 经度: 70.76
深度: 166 震级: 5.4(Mw)
地震源电磁反向追踪系统，威力无比！！

1随风1

预测位置距离震中位置约200公里，但是一边是巴基斯坦，一边是阿富汗。。。。

tanlilin

预测成功,祝贺!

根本没有发生

1随风1

美国地调局网站没有的地震信息，那么地震就没有发生？这个问题已经探讨多多次。
台网代码 台站代码 震相名称 震中距 震相到时 残差 震级(M)
IU KBL P 2.5 2012-02-16 12:08:02.040 -3.0 4.6 (ML)
XJ TAG P 3.7 2012-02-16 12:08:19.550 -0.4 4.8 (ML)
XJ WUQ P 4.7 2012-02-16 12:08:32.870 0.2 4.4 (ML)
XJ YJS P 4.9 2012-02-16 12:08:35.460 -0.1 4.8 (ML)
XJ KSZ P 5.1 2012-02-16 12:08:37.550 0.4 4.9 (ML)
XJ ATS P 5.1 2012-02-16 12:08:37.800 -0.1 5.0 (ML)
XJ YCH P 5.3 2012-02-16 12:08:38.930 -1.9 4.4 (ML)
XJ YPH P 5.4 2012-02-16 12:08:41.780 0.3 5.1 (ML)
XJ XKR P 6.3 2012-02-16 12:08:50.680 -2.0 5.4 (ML)
II AAK P 6.7 2012-02-16 12:08:58.570 0.4 4.4 (ML)
XJ BCH P 7.1 2012-02-16 12:09:00.460 -2.8 4.3 (ML)
XJ AHQ P 7.4 2012-02-16 12:09:06.940 -0.7 4.0 (ML)
XJ AKS P 8.6 2012-02-16 12:09:21.820 -1.3 3.7 (ML)
XZ SQHE P 8.6 2012-02-16 12:09:21.240 -2.8 4.7 (ML)
XJ SMY P 8.6 2012-02-16 12:09:22.130 -1.1 3.7 (ML)
XJ ZSU P 9.6 2012-02-16 12:09:35.720 -0.3 4.5 (mb)
XJ BAC P 9.9 2012-02-16 12:09:39.390 -1.2 5.0 (mb)
XJ CBC P 10.7 2012-02-16 12:09:49.860 -0.9 4.7 (mb)
XJ KUC P 10.7 2012-02-16 12:09:51.060 -0.2 5.0 (mb)
XJ WNQ P 11.4 2012-02-16 12:09:59.580 -0.2 5.3 (mBB)
XJ LTA P 11.7 2012-02-16 12:10:04.100 0.4 5.4 (mb)
XJ XNY P 11.8 2012-02-16 12:10:07.710 2.2 4.8 (mb)
XJ ALS P 12.1 2012-02-16 12:10:08.200 -0.6 5.4 (mBB)
XJ JHE P 12.3 2012-02-16 12:10:12.570 1.4 5.0 (mb)
XJ WSU P 13.0 2012-02-16 12:10:19.160 -0.7 4.7 (mb)
IU MAKZ P 13.2 2012-02-16 12:10:23.420 0.9 5.5 (mBB)
XJ LSG P 13.5 2012-02-16 12:10:26.200 -1.0 5.0 (mb)
XJ SCH P 13.5 2012-02-16 12:10:28.260 1.4 4.9 (mb)
XJ KMY P 13.9 2012-02-16 12:10:30.590 -1.3 5.2 (mBB)
XJ TAC P 13.8 2012-02-16 12:10:31.220 0.3 4.9 (mb)
XJ SHZ P 13.8 2012-02-16 12:10:34.320 4.3 5.3 (mb)
XJ STZ P 14.1 2012-02-16 12:10:34.280 0.6 5.1 (mb)
XJ HTB P 14.2 2012-02-16 12:10:38.910 3.8 5.2 (mb)
XJ KMS P 14.6 2012-02-16 12:10:39.130 -1.0 4.7 (mb)
XJ LHG P 14.3 2012-02-16 12:10:40.320 3.7 5.1 (mb)
XJ HEF P 15.1 2012-02-16 12:10:45.390 -1.1 5.2 (mb)
XJ TCH P 15.1 2012-02-16 12:10:45.430 -0.8 5.0 (mBB)
IC WMQ P 14.8 2012-02-16 12:10:46.800 4.1 4.3 (mb)
II KURK P 15.2 2012-02-16 12:10:48.670 1.1 5.0 (mb)
XJ GAZ P 15.3 2012-02-16 12:10:49.560 0.9 4.8 (mb)
XJ FUH P 16.0 2012-02-16 12:10:57.030 -0.5 5.0 (mb)
XJ HBH P 16.4 2012-02-16 12:11:02.670 0.3 4.5 (mb)
II BRVK P 16.5 2012-02-16 12:11:04.020 1.3 5.0 (mb)
XJ ALT P 17.1 2012-02-16 12:11:08.730 -1.2 4.7 (mb)
XZ RKZ P 16.9 2012-02-16 12:11:09.190 1.3 4.5 (mb)
XJ BTS P 17.2 2012-02-16 12:11:11.130 -0.7 4.5 (mb)
XJ FUY P 17.4 2012-02-16 12:11:13.020 -1.1 5.0 (mBB)
XJ QHE P 17.9 2012-02-16 12:11:18.280 -0.9 5.2 (mb)
QH TTH P 17.7 2012-02-16 12:11:19.600 1.9 4.2 (mb)
XZ NMU P 17.7 2012-02-16 12:11:19.310 1.5 4.8 (mb)
QH LEH P 18.1 2012-02-16 12:11:20.620 -0.7 4.2 (mb)
XZ DXI P 18.0 2012-02-16 12:11:22.170 1.9 4.6 (mb)
IC LSA P 18.4 2012-02-16 12:11:26.100 1.0 4.6 (mb)
XZ NAQ P 18.4 2012-02-16 12:11:28.360 3.1 4.7 (mb)
XZ MZG P 18.8 2012-02-16 12:11:30.520 1.0 4.7 (mb)
GS DHT P 19.2 2012-02-16 12:11:33.450 -0.3 4.2 (mb)
XZ SNA P 19.1 2012-02-16 12:11:33.070 0.4 4.6 (mb)
QH DCD P 19.6 2012-02-16 12:11:37.680 -0.8 4.6 (mb)
GS SBC P 20.0 2012-02-16 12:11:42.010 -0.5 5.1 (mb)
IU GNI P 20.7 2012-02-16 12:11:52.370 2.8 5.5 (mb)
QH DLH P 21.2 2012-02-16 12:11:57.550 2.2 4.4 (mb)
II ARU P 21.5 2012-02-16 12:11:58.090 0.7 4.7 (mb)
QH YUS P 21.8 2012-02-16 12:12:02.380 1.2 5.3 (mBB)
GS YJZ P 22.1 2012-02-16 12:12:04.690 0.9 4.6 (mb)
QH MAD P 22.3 2012-02-16 12:12:07.850 2.0 4.4 (mb)
QH TIJ P 22.5 2012-02-16 12:12:08.620 1.3 4.8 (mb)
XZ CAD P 22.6 2012-02-16 12:12:09.710 1.4 5.0 (mb)
GS SNT P 22.9 2012-02-16 12:12:12.920 1.5 5.1 (mb)
GS GTA P 23.0 2012-02-16 12:12:13.520 0.9 4.9 (mb)
QH XIH P 23.5 2012-02-16 12:12:17.930 1.0 4.3 (mb)
QH QIL P 23.4 2012-02-16 12:12:19.300 3.2 3.6 (mb)
QH DAW P 24.0 2012-02-16 12:12:24.610 2.3 4.4 (mb)
XZ CHY P 23.8 2012-02-16 12:12:24.740 4.8 4.2 (mb)
QH MEY P 24.4 2012-02-16 12:12:26.660 0.9 4.6 (mb)
QH HUY P 24.4 2012-02-16 12:12:26.050 0.5 4.1 (mb)
SC BTA P 24.5 2012-02-16 12:12:27.480 0.6 4.7 (mb)
GS HJT P 24.9 2012-02-16 12:12:29.310 -0.5 4.7 (mb)
YN GOS P 25.1 2012-02-16 12:12:31.520 -1.0 4.5 (mb)
QH QSS P 25.1 2012-02-16 12:12:32.660 1.0 4.4 (mb)
SC RTA P 25.2 2012-02-16 12:12:34.730 1.4 4.4 (mb)
QH LWS P 25.1 2012-02-16 12:12:34.460 2.8 4.3 (mb)
QH HUL P 25.3 2012-02-16 12:12:35.470 1.6 4.3 (mb)
QH LED P 25.3 2012-02-16 12:12:36.150 1.9 3.9 (mb)
SC XCE P 25.5 2012-02-16 12:12:37.610 1.9 4.5 (mb)
GS MQT P 25.6 2012-02-16 12:12:37.280 0.6 4.8 (mb)
SC LTA P 25.5 2012-02-16 12:12:37.160 1.8 4.5 (mb)
SC DFU P 25.8 2012-02-16 12:12:39.620 1.4 4.3 (mb)
GS YDT P 26.0 2012-02-16 12:12:40.710 0.2 4.7 (mb)
GS HZT P 26.1 2012-02-16 12:12:40.830 0.2 4.7 (mb)
GS LXA P 26.2 2012-02-16 12:12:42.020 0.0 4.7 (mb)
SC YJI P 26.0 2012-02-16 12:12:42.750 2.2 4.7 (mb)
SC GZA P 26.9 2012-02-16 12:12:44.560 -4.1 6.2 (mBB)
SC MEK P 26.4 2012-02-16 12:12:44.030 0.7 4.2 (mb)
YN YUL P 26.6 2012-02-16 12:12:46.650 1.1 4.6 (mb)
SC HSH P 26.9 2012-02-16 12:12:49.190 0.8 4.6 (mb)
GS MXT P 27.1 2012-02-16 12:12:49.650 -0.2 4.8 (mb)
SC WCH P 27.6 2012-02-16 12:12:54.420 -0.0 4.9 (mb)
SC YZP P 27.8 2012-02-16 12:12:55.830 -0.4 5.0 (mb)
SC PWU P 28.1 2012-02-16 12:12:58.320 -0.3 4.6 (mb)
GS WXT P 28.0 2012-02-16 12:12:58.350 0.2 4.9 (mb)
SC JYA P 28.5 2012-02-16 12:13:01.710 -0.6 5.0 (mb)
SC QCH P 28.6 2012-02-16 12:13:02.340 -0.7 4.3 (mb)
SC JJS P 28.5 2012-02-16 12:13:02.350 -0.4 5.1 (mb)
GS TSS P 28.6 2012-02-16 12:13:03.450 0.3 5.2 (mb)
GS ZHC P 28.8 2012-02-16 12:13:03.150 -1.9 4.8 (mb)
IU ULN P 28.9 2012-02-16 12:13:05.240 -0.4 4.4 (mb)
SC SMK P 28.8 2012-02-16 12:13:05.820 0.8 4.6 (mb)
GS HXT P 29.2 2012-02-16 12:13:09.170 0.5 5.0 (mb)
YN YAJ P 29.4 2012-02-16 12:13:11.080 0.6 4.5 (mb)
GS NXT P 29.9 2012-02-16 12:13:14.980 -0.2 4.8 (mb)
SN LIYO P 29.4 2012-02-16 12:13:15.180 4.8 4.7 (mb)
GS HCH P 30.2 2012-02-16 12:13:15.480 -2.1 5.0 (mb)
SN YAAN P 30.8 2012-02-16 12:13:21.530 -1.0 5.2 (mb)
SC HYS P 30.6 2012-02-16 12:13:22.170 1.2 4.1 (mb)
SC XHA P 31.0 2012-02-16 12:13:22.670 -1.5 4.9 (mb)
IC XAN P 31.1 2012-02-16 12:13:24.280 -1.3 5.1 (mb)
CQ WAS P 31.2 2012-02-16 12:13:26.490 -0.2 3.9 (mb)
SN HEYT P 31.7 2012-02-16 12:13:28.540 -1.9 5.0 (mb)
CQ CHK P 31.5 2012-02-16 12:13:28.960 -0.1 4.4 (mb)
GZ ZYT P 31.6 2012-02-16 12:13:29.650 -0.6 5.0 (mb)
CQ SHZ P 31.9 2012-02-16 12:13:31.480 -0.9 4.4 (mb)
CQ WUL P 31.8 2012-02-16 12:13:31.450 -0.5 4.4 (mb)
SX XIX P 32.1 2012-02-16 12:13:32.370 -1.6 5.4 (mb)
SX YJI P 32.3 2012-02-16 12:13:34.300 -1.4 5.1 (mb)
HB ZUX P 32.2 2012-02-16 12:13:34.360 -1.1 5.0 (mb)
HB LCH P 32.2 2012-02-16 12:13:34.490 -1.0 4.7 (mb)
NM BHS P 32.2 2012-02-16 12:13:36.320 0.9 5.1 (mb)
HB ZSH P 32.7 2012-02-16 12:13:37.940 -1.5 5.0 (mb)
HB YXI P 32.6 2012-02-16 12:13:37.520 -1.2 4.8 (mb)
SX HZH P 32.8 2012-02-16 12:13:38.810 -1.8 5.8 (mb)
HA LS P 32.8 2012-02-16 12:13:38.910 -1.4 5.1 (mb)
HB SYA P 33.0 2012-02-16 12:13:40.400 -1.4 4.6 (mb)
HB HFE P 33.3 2012-02-16 12:13:43.990 -1.0 4.8 (mb)
SX ANZ P 33.2 2012-02-16 12:13:43.200 -0.7 4.8 (mb)
HB XSH P 33.5 2012-02-16 12:13:45.140 -1.3 4.8 (mb)
HB DJI P 33.6 2012-02-16 12:13:46.610 -1.0 5.0 (mb)
SX YAC P 33.5 2012-02-16 12:13:46.680 0.2 4.9 (mb)
SX ZCH P 33.3 2012-02-16 12:13:46.880 2.1 4.5 (mb)
SX XAY P 33.6 2012-02-16 12:13:47.390 -0.3 5.2 (mb)
GZ LBT P 33.7 2012-02-16 12:13:48.720 0.7 4.5 (mb)
SX CHZ P 33.9 2012-02-16 12:13:49.170 -1.0 5.3 (mb)
SX ZOQ P 33.9 2012-02-16 12:13:49.240 -0.3 5.7 (mb)
HN ZJJ P 34.0 2012-02-16 12:13:49.350 -1.2 4.5 (mb)
HB NZH P 34.1 2012-02-16 12:13:49.450 -2.0 5.0 (mb)
SX LIC P 34.1 2012-02-16 12:13:50.820 -1.2 5.1 (mb)
HB YCH P 34.0 2012-02-16 12:13:50.800 -0.2 4.5 (mb)
HA NY P 34.0 2012-02-16 12:13:50.620 -0.5 4.7 (mb)
HA JZ P 34.2 2012-02-16 12:13:51.580 -0.8 5.7 (mb)
HA JS P 34.4 2012-02-16 12:13:53.520 -0.6 5.6 (mb)
HA ZMD P 35.2 2012-02-16 12:13:59.580 -1.7 5.0 (mb)
HA XX P 35.1 2012-02-16 12:14:00.360 -0.1 5.4 (mb)
HB SZH P 35.4 2012-02-16 12:14:01.210 -1.7 5.4 (mb)
HA XY P 35.8 2012-02-16 12:14:03.690 -2.1 5.1 (mb)
HB DWU P 36.1 2012-02-16 12:14:07.290 -1.0 4.8 (mb)
SD LSH P 36.3 2012-02-16 12:14:09.960 -0.5 5.1 (mb)
HB JYU P 36.4 2012-02-16 12:14:10.700 -0.9 4.9 (mb)
HA SC P 37.0 2012-02-16 12:14:14.770 -1.5 4.4 (mb)
SD ZCH P 37.2 2012-02-16 12:14:17.020 -0.6 4.5 (mb)
HB YNX P 37.4 2012-02-16 12:14:18.580 -1.0 4.7 (mb)
AH JZA P 37.4 2012-02-16 12:14:19.810 0.1 5.0 (mb)
NM ARS P 37.5 2012-02-16 12:14:20.230 -0.5 4.4 (mb)
JS XZ P 37.6 2012-02-16 12:14:20.320 -1.1 4.9 (mb)
NM XIH P 37.9 2012-02-16 12:14:23.090 -1.0 5.0 (mb)
SD CSH P 38.1 2012-02-16 12:14:24.130 -1.6 5.4 (mb)
NM MDG P 38.1 2012-02-16 12:14:25.970 0.5 4.4 (mb)
AH DYN P 38.3 2012-02-16 12:14:26.630 -1.0 5.0 (mb)
SD HAH P 38.2 2012-02-16 12:14:27.940 1.2 6.6 (mb)
JS SH P 38.6 2012-02-16 12:14:28.450 -1.3 5.2 (mb)
SD JUN P 38.7 2012-02-16 12:14:30.370 0.2 5.1 (mb)
LN SHS P 39.0 2012-02-16 12:14:31.160 -1.7 5.2 (mb)
LN JZH P 39.0 2012-02-16 12:14:32.650 -0.7 5.1 (mb)
NM WLT P 39.0 2012-02-16 12:14:32.010 -1.2 4.7 (mb)
JL BCT P 39.2 2012-02-16 12:14:33.230 -1.4 5.3 (mb)
JS GUY P 39.2 2012-02-16 12:14:33.620 -1.2 5.1 (mb)
LN BZH P 39.4 2012-02-16 12:14:35.580 -0.8 4.9 (mb)
JS LH P 39.6 2012-02-16 12:14:36.870 -0.8 4.9 (mb)
NM NJT P 39.8 2012-02-16 12:14:39.630 0.0 5.1 (mb)
LN LYN P 40.6 2012-02-16 12:14:45.260 -0.9 5.1 (mb)
LN XYN P 40.8 2012-02-16 12:14:46.390 -1.4 5.1 (mb)
HL TAH P 40.6 2012-02-16 12:14:46.560 0.9 4.5 (mb)
JL SPT P 41.2 2012-02-16 12:14:50.070 -0.7 5.1 (mb)
IU KEV P 40.6 2012-02-16 12:14:50.370 4.3 2.7 (mb)
LN MQI P 41.5 2012-02-16 12:14:53.000 -0.5 5.0 (mb)
HL BEL P 42.5 2012-02-16 12:15:00.800 -1.0 5.3 (mb)
JL THT P 42.5 2012-02-16 12:15:01.620 -0.1 4.6 (mb)
JL JYT P 43.0 2012-02-16 12:15:05.250 -0.1 5.0 (mb)
HL XUK P 43.4 2012-02-16 12:15:07.310 -1.4 4.8 (mb)
HL TOH P 43.6 2012-02-16 12:15:10.080 -0.3 4.5 (mb)
HL JIY P 44.0 2012-02-16 12:15:12.020 -1.7 4.8 (mb)
IU TIXI P 45.7 2012-02-16 12:15:25.560 -1.4 4.7 (mb)
IA PDSI P 46.4 2012-02-16 12:15:31.080 -1.7 4.7 (mb)
IA RGRI P 47.0 2012-02-16 12:15:41.170 3.8 7.0 (mBB)
IA DSRI P 49.0 2012-02-16 12:15:58.160 5.3 6.0 (mb)
IU COLA P 74.4 2012-02-16 12:18:41.720 -0.5 4.9 (mb)
AF CVNA P 82.9 2012-02-16 12:19:25.650 -3.0 3.7 (mb)

小黑鸡

个人认为，对于Jopens的数据只有像山西所谓深源小震、2号新疆若羌所谓Mb4.1、12月11日智利7+这些，理论上不可能或者其他正式部门当前实测都无记录的，个人认为才能判定可能为误报。该预测所引用的实发数据虽然是非正式数据源，且虽然USGS没有报告，但印度气象部门（存在于未经确认的事件列表中）、EMSC（标记为来源于其它部门（USGS））对该震都有报告。所以不能说事件没发生过。个人认为，对于不管是非正式的Jopens还是正式的USGS等，都应该持谨慎态度，不能把哪个地震机构当做权威，应该看各机构的实测数据，以正式机构的优先（USGS、EMSC等）。
个人建议，随风先生对于类似级别的地震5.9级以下的地震，预测Mb震级，更方便验证。

另外，题外话，5楼的话，个人认为，恰恰能够延伸出这样一个问题：如果预报某国有破坏性地震，以外交或人道主义方式通报某国，但是震在了本国内，而某国引发了骚乱或动乱，这样可能引发国际问题，特别是像印巴阿这些。预报不仅需考虑本国社会问题，而且也需考虑国际问题。